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'Let's Talk About Six': Why The Suns NEED To Nail Cursed Selection
- chasealfasi
- Nov 26, 2022
- 7 min read
Updated: Nov 29, 2022
By Chase Alfasi
26 Nov, 2022
Currently, the Suns hold pick 5 received from Adelaide in exchange for Izak Rankine, yet the pick is almost certain to slide to pick 6 when Brisbane match a bid for father-son prospect, Will Ashcroft.
The History of Pick 6
Despite having access to the sixth best kid in the country, recruiters have long been inept to extract a fruitful career from pick 6 in the AFL National Draft.
While players drafted in the top ten average 100+ AFL games across their careers, players selected at pick 6 average around 60 games throughout their time at the top level. After the inception of the National Draft in 1986, it took until the 1997 draft for the first pick 6 to be selected and go on to play over 100 games when Fremantle chose James Walker at the number 6 selection.
Incredibly, 20 out of the first 23 players taken at this spot averaged a lowly 32.9 games across their career. Famously, Hawthorn selected Mitch Thorp in 2006 at pick 6 who only managed 2 appearances for the club where players taken either side of him have had illustrious careers. Travis Boak taken at no.5 continues to add to his 327 games while Joel Selwood, taken the pick after Thorp recently retired with 355 games and endless accolades that included 6 All Australian Jackets and 4 premierships with the Geelong Cats.
Notably, Matthew Scharenberg (Collingwood), drafted in 2013 is not even in the AFL system anymore after the Pies delisted him in 2020 following an injury-riddled career, consisting of three ACL ruptures and a multitude of concussion setbacks.
Matt Scharenberg ruptures his ACL for the third time [Source: AAP]
The curse took a three-year hiatus from 2011 to 2013 as the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide Power were successful in developing Jack Macrae and Chad Wingard respectively after Gary Rohan was chosen at pick 6 in 2011. The pair having accumulated 5 All- Australian inclusions collectively at their initial clubs.
Jayden Stephenson looked to buck the trend winning the NAB Rising Star award in 2018 for the best young player at Collingwood, but his performances have since plateaued, resulting in a move to North Melbourne.
Adelaide will be optimistic that Josh Rachele will fill the boots of legend, Eddie Betts after he burst onto the scene kicking 5 goals on debut in round 1 this year against Fremantle.
Recent Players Taken at Pick 6 (2005-2021)
2005: Beau Dowler (Hawthorn) – 16 games
2006: Mitch Thorp (Hawthorn) – 2 games
2007: David Myers (Essendon) – 116 games
2008: Chris Yarran (Carlton) – 119 games
2009: Gary Rohan (Sydney) – 177 games
2010: Reece Conca (Richmond) – 150 games
2011: Chad Wingard (Port Adelaide) – 204 games*
2012: Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs) – 208 games*
2013: Matthew Scharenberg (Collingwood) – 41 games
2014: Caleb Marchbank (GWS) – 52 games*
2015: Aaron Francis (Essendon) – 54 games*
2016: Sam Petrevski-Seton (Carlton) – 108 games*
2017: Jaidyn Stephenson (Collingwood) – 89 games*
2018: Ben King (Gold Coast) - 53 games*
2019: Fischer McAsey (Adelaide) - 10 games*
2020: Denver Grainger-Barras (Hawthorn) - 21 games*
2021: Josh Rachele (Adelaide) - 13 games*
* represents player still playing
Over to you Gold Coast
They looked to have done it in 2018 and four years later the suns will want to make sure they recite similar prayers to lift the curse of the sixth draft pick.
Gold Coast seized their opportunity in 2018 when twin brother of Max, Ben King was still on the table after 5 selections. The versatile tall showed capabilities at both ends of the ground during his draft year but especially impressed in the Suns forward line kicking 89 goals from his first 53 games. With the recruitment of ever-consistent Mabior Chol and the contract extension of Levi Casboult, it is uncertain where the 202cm, Haileybury product will line up in 2023, although his lofty potential is undisputed within the industry.
Ben King looks set to return to the suns forward line after missing the enitre 2022 season (Photo by Michael Willson) [Source: Getty Images]
Considering a range of factors between, talent, list needs and loyalty, the pressure is on Gold Coast's list manager, Kall Burns to draft accordingly after they notoriously gifted away pick 7 to Geelong along with former first round pick Jack Bowes to create salary cap breathing space.
Questionable list decisions
Top ten picks are heavily sought after and protected by clubs and for Gold Coast to give away pick 7 and receive only a measly future third-round pick is hard to justify as an outsider looking in. The recent "salary dump" headlines a list of questionable list decisions from the club after they departed with pick 2 to trade for Lachie Weller from Fremantle in 2017. Weller has been more than serviceable, however hindsight is no excuse for the move as that pick was used to select Andrew Brayshaw, the reigning AFL Players Association Most Valuable Player.
Ex-sun Jarryd Lyons was remarkably delisted by the Suns after the 2018 season and then went on to achieve 3 consecutive top-5 best and fairest finished in a top-4 Brisbane Lions side.
Jarryd Lyons won the Marcus Ashcroft medal for best on ground honours in
a win against his former club Gold Coast in 2021 [Source: AFL Photos]
Only 12 months ago were supporters left perplexed by the manner in which Hugh Greenwood left the club. A common maneuver from clubs, a player may be delisted before being re-drafted as a rookie to free up a list spot, although it does allow other clubs to pounce on the player as they essentially become delisted free agents. The 30-year-old played 15 games for the Suns in 2021 averaging 17.5 disposals and 8.7 tackles asserting himself as an experienced, disciplined leader in their best 22. After the season he was delisted with a promise to be re-drafted, even assuring supporters he was 'Still at the Suns' in a tweet. Four days later, incredibly, Greenwood signed a contract with North Melbourne in a move described by Fox Footy's Gary Lyon as 'unthinkable'.
Understandably, Gold Coast have to manage their players differently to Victorian clubs with most players having to relocate to Queensland combined with the lack of success and spectators since their inauguration in 2011. As the club is not necessarily the most desirable franchise for a player the club has to pay players more in order to retain them. Indeed, they have lost key players over the years such as Steven May, Tom Lynch, Dion Prestia and Jaeger O'meara who all feature a long-listed exodus.
Former Gold Coast players Josh Caddy (left), Dion Prestia (centre) and Tom Lynch (right) celebrating Richmond's premiership in 2019 [Source: Herald Sun]
Entering their 13th campaign, the Suns are still yet to play finals and while they have built a competitive list and game plan based on pressure and contest, it is time for them to look at the now rather than hypothetical futures to ameliorate the controversies of their list management.
The footy world is fickle. The tall-poppy syndrome instilled in Australians make us quick to criticise at any opportunity but ultimately AFL is an industry based on wins and losses and if the Suns can edge ahead of the win-loss ledger with a successful pickup, the footy world might just ignore the farcical decisions of the past.
Immediate Impact
The Gold Coast Suns must play finals in 2023. At least that's what Stuart Dew should be demanding from his playing group. Whoever the Suns select at pick 6, they must be able to have an immediate impact on the team to push them further up the ladder next season as surrounding teams, Carlton and Port Adelaide look to have bolstered their list in the recent trade period. With the impending introduction of a Tasmanian team and their expected draft assistance from the AFL, the Sun's first acquisition this year is vital.
With Touk Miller at the peak of his career and the emergence of young guns Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell and Elijah Hollands, the Suns have to give the Victorian quartet a reason to stay in Carrara.
In the Mix...
Elijah Tstatas
186cm/79kg
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Midfielder
Tsatas has shown recruiters why is he considered a top 5 prospect in this year's draft after the prolific midfielder won the Oakleigh Chargers best and fairest from only 6 appearances. As other team select their players based on list needs, Tsatas may slide down the order past pick 5 and give the Suns an opportunity to add a polished, running midfielder, capable of hitting the scoreboard to their hardened, big-bodied midfield mix.
Bailey Humphrey
186cm/86kg
Gippsland Power/Vic Country
Forward/Midfielder
A versatile 'gamechanger', Humphrey has been lauded for his high footy IQ as well as his physicality as the Gippsland prospect has demonstrated aerial prowess and power in his contested game. Likened to Toby Greene, Humphrey could help replace the hole left by Izak Rankine as well as pinch-hit in the midfield to create a point of difference.
Jhye Clark
181cm/77kg
Geelong Falcons/Vic Country
Midfielder
Despite being on Geelong's radar, the Suns would have first access to Clark should his name not be called out before pick 6. Clark would not look out of place in the red and gold midfield carrying all the traits that Stuart Dew values in tackling and work rate. The Geelong Falcon also has tidy foot skills and a knack of hitting the scoreboard; a complete midfielder that can instantaneously improve a side that was 'middle of the pack' in clearances and contested possessions last season.
Reuben Ginbey
189cm/82kg
East Perth/Western Australia
Midfielder/defender
Ginbey represents the modern day midfielder with the ability to accelerate away from stoppages and stand up in tackles with his extra size and power but also have the finesse and panache when distributing the football. Having played in defence earlier in the year, Ginbey may also be able to solidify the Suns backline that was decimated with injuries last season. The left footer is from Western Australia but when casually driving 250km back home to see his family, Ginbey appears to be comfortable moving across the country and the keen surfer is likely to embrace the Gold Coast waves, making him a viable option.
Others in the mix: Mattaes Phillipou, Cam Mackenzie, Oliver Hollands
Verdict: Gold Coast select Reuben Ginbey at pick 6
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